INTUITION & PREDICTION

951 Comments

I have 2 questions for you:
1. Do you believe that our intuition on issues of threat, safety, risk, and violence can be wrong?
2. Do you believe that violence, in the form of sudden human violent behavior, can be predicted?

Here’s my take on this, for anybody interested, so take with a grain-of-salt. Intuition can absolutely be wrong and consistently shows as much. Not all intuition is “good” intuition. It has an element of evolution, yes, where we’re wary of snake-bites, being burned, sensing predatory danger/being hunted, etc. It’s hard-wired. But the daily intuition in modern context that we refer to is developed over time and intricately personal…soft-wired. Important? Well, I think it’s important for people to understand that it’s prone to various types of personal biases and that it’s not a magical mystical thing always designed to protect us. Like adrenaline, the more knowledge one has, the more one understands, the more chance of calm(er) response to it and what it means. How is it developed? By experience, exposure, knowledge, training, nature, nurture, environment, culture and, when those change, so too does intuition over time. (also meaning that feedback from your past ‘can’ be very helpful if those personal biases don’t cloud things and you’re aware of them – thus, the paranoia) It can be very right or very wrong so simply “trust your intuition” or “go with your gut” or “I had a feeling” are only partially-true and shouldn’t be the fallback many instructors tell you. It’s not some magical 6th-sense that most claim….it is grounded in elements very tangible.

Resultado de imagen para intuition images"

We are prone to errors but higher-stakes pattern-recognition (and let’s face it, intuition is a big part pattern-recognition) comes from a place of prior data/stimuli/experiences, which is greatly diverse from person-to-person. My intuition on night-club interview violence simply won’t be as honed as a bouncer’s due to his past. (which doesn’t mean I won’t have alarm-bells go off from my own experience/experiences) His/hers for particular Central-American issues won’t be as honed as mine for the same reasons. (Ditto on the alarm-bells for him/her) So, that being said, “thinking it first” has every bit the chance of success on many occasions as “feeling it first” if the perceptual filters listed above are present and there’s time. Thinking doesn’t make one paranoid, it just means it’s a situation where there’s greater time to assess and make an educated decision – whether right or wrong, like intuition, is another thing entirely. Generalizations.

One question on prediction. Can violence be predicted ahead of time to the point it can be stopped before happening? When we see “PINs” or “ritual signs of violence” or “body language/intent”….it’s at our doorstep and about to happen. It’s too late for mitigation, prevention, or prediction. It’s here and we need to deal with it…OR we simply don’t see or acknowledge these things and bad things happen. But can it be predicted prior and stopped? If there’s a lead-up or high-stakes predictions (long-term planning, manifestós, social media info, loved-one concern from signs, diaries, prior like-behavior), I’d say a far greater chance. If not, I’d say very difficult. Risk-analysis, threat-assessment, safety-precautions to mitigate threat….absolutely. To predict outright? I’d say pretty damn difficult. Trends, environments, statistics, signs all help to mitigate and risk-downsize….but it’s super-, super-difficult to predict individual human behavior what with urges, irrational behavior, impulse, momentary need, states, moods, etc. Maybe with the new brain/neuro technology that’s being developed but the risk of this (privacy-loss/mind-invasiveness/corporation-government misuse) is pretty damn horrifying. Lowering the odds is definitely achievable, however, to be certain.

Resultado de imagen para intuition images"

Regarding definitions, I’d say (for me, from my perspective) “intuition” would be something on the short-end of time….something momentary, in-the-moment, situational, soon-to-happen..or not. “Prediction” longer-term, with a lead-up. Can we “predict” what will happen on the stock-market? How someone will handle traumatic bad news? What the future will hold? I’ll leave a few of very good, easy-to-read, and very up-to-date articles on intuition below for curiosity.

Daniel Kahneman on Expert Intuition

https://qz.com/work/1227997/the-science-of-intuition-can-help-you-understand-how-to-use-it/?fbclid=IwAR3dzVY2Fo1fzUnJhL8tbUqb7SEIxiA3e98h3QYjJUumuygSBYur4Ibce3k

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/3636444/Good-intuition-takes-years-of-practice.html?fbclid=IwAR30ucRyfreDyvyi_ndUQbKxn17Xyx63hgaTPytJUW8qX8Ba87ITfVFVyBc

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  808. Wow that was strange. I just wrote an really long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyways, just wanted to say great blog!

  809. Hi would you mind letting me know which hosting company you’re using? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different internet browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot faster then most. Can you suggest a good internet hosting provider at a honest price? Cheers, I appreciate it!

  812. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  814. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  836. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

  838. Can I simply say what a comfort to discover an individual who truly knows what they are talking about over the internet. You definitely understand how to bring an issue to light and make it important. A lot more people need to check this out and understand this side of the story. I can’t believe you’re not more popular since you most certainly have the gift.

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  845. One other thing to point out is that an online business administration program is designed for scholars to be able to effortlessly proceed to bachelors degree courses. The 90 credit certification meets the other bachelor college degree requirements then when you earn your associate of arts in BA online, you will get access to up to date technologies in this particular field. Several reasons why students need to get their associate degree in business is because they may be interested in this area and want to find the general training necessary previous to jumping right into a bachelor diploma program. Many thanks for the tips you really provide inside your blog.

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  847. I’m curious to find out what blog platform you happen to be utilizing? I’m experiencing some small security issues with my latest blog and I would like to find something more safe. Do you have any solutions?

  848. Many thanks for your post. I’d really like to comment that the expense of car insurance varies greatly from one coverage to another, since there are so many different facets which bring about the overall cost. For example, the model and make of the vehicle will have a huge bearing on the charge. A reliable ancient family vehicle will have a more economical premium over a flashy sports car.

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  859. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

  860. I do agree with all of the ideas you’ve presented in your post. They’re really convincing and will certainly work. Still, the posts are too short for starters. Could you please extend them a little from next time? Thanks for the post.

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  865. Hello! Do you know if they make any plugins to safeguard against hackers? I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard on. Any suggestions?

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  867. Hi this is somewhat of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding knowledge so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  868. Hi! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely delighted I found it and I’ll be bookmarking and checking back often!

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  875. Wow that was unusual. I just wrote an very long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Regardless, just wanted to say fantastic blog!

  876. Can I simply just say what a comfort to find somebody that actually understands what they’re discussing on the internet. You definitely know how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people should look at this and understand this side of your story. It’s surprising you are not more popular since you most certainly have the gift.

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  889. At this time it seems like Expression Engine is the top blogging platform out there right now. (from what I’ve read) Is that what you’re using on your blog?

  890. Wow that was strange. I just wrote an incredibly long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyhow, just wanted to say great blog!

  895. Hi just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same results.

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  898. I have noticed that online degree is getting preferred because obtaining your degree online has turned into a popular solution for many people. Numerous people have certainly not had a chance to attend a traditional college or university however seek the raised earning possibilities and a better job that a Bachelor Degree grants. Still other people might have a degree in one discipline but would wish to pursue one thing they now have an interest in.

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  902. Hey there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any issues with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing several weeks of hard work due to no backup. Do you have any solutions to protect against hackers?

  905. A different issue is really that video gaming has become one of the all-time main forms of fun for people of all ages. Kids engage in video games, and also adults do, too. Your XBox 360 is just about the favorite gaming systems for people who love to have hundreds of activities available to them, along with who like to experiment with live with other people all over the world. Thank you for sharing your opinions.

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  929. Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.

  930. One thing is that when you are searching for a student loan you may find that you’ll want a cosigner. There are many circumstances where this is correct because you may find that you do not use a past credit score so the bank will require that you have someone cosign the credit for you. Good post.

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