{"id":2023,"date":"2019-09-09T10:24:03","date_gmt":"2019-09-09T16:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mandirigmafma.com\/?p=2023"},"modified":"2019-12-25T21:42:05","modified_gmt":"2019-12-26T03:42:05","slug":"intuition-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.mandirigmafma.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/09\/intuition-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"INTUITION & PREDICTION"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I have 2 questions for you:
1. Do you believe that our intuition on issues of threat, safety, risk, and violence can be wrong?
2. Do you believe that violence, in the form of sudden human violent behavior, can be predicted? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s my take on this, for anybody interested, so take with a grain-of-salt. Intuition can absolutely be wrong and consistently shows as much. Not all intuition is \u201cgood\u201d intuition. It has an element of\u00a0evolution, yes, where we’re wary of snake-bites, being burned, sensing predatory danger\/being hunted, etc. It\u2019s hard-wired. But the daily intuition in modern context that we refer to is developed over time and intricately personal\u2026soft-wired. Important? Well, I think it\u2019s important for people to understand that it\u2019s prone to various types of personal biases and that it\u2019s not a magical mystical thing always designed to protect us. Like adrenaline, the more knowledge one has, the more one understands, the more chance of calm(er) response to it and what it means. How is it developed? By experience, exposure, knowledge, training, nature, nurture, environment, culture and, when those change, so too does intuition over time. (also meaning that feedback from your past \u2018can\u2019 be very helpful if those personal biases don’t cloud things and you\u2019re aware of them \u2013 thus, the paranoia) It can be very right or very wrong so simply “trust your intuition” or “go with your gut” or “I had a feeling” are only partially-true and shouldn\u2019t be the fallback many instructors tell you. It’s not some magical 6th-sense that most claim….it is grounded in elements very tangible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Resultado<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We are prone to errors but higher-stakes pattern-recognition (and let’s face it, intuition is a big part pattern-recognition) comes from a place of prior data\/stimuli\/experiences, which is greatly diverse from person-to-person. My intuition on night-club interview violence simply won’t be as honed as a bouncer’s due to his past. (which doesn\u2019t mean I won\u2019t have alarm-bells go off from my own experience\/experiences) His\/hers for particular Central-American issues won’t be as honed as mine for the same reasons. (Ditto on the alarm-bells for him\/her) So, that being said, “thinking it first” has every bit the chance of success on many occasions as “feeling it first” if the perceptual filters listed above are present and there’s time. Thinking doesn’t make one paranoid, it just means it’s a situation where there’s greater time to assess and make an educated decision – whether right or wrong, like intuition, is another thing entirely. Generalizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One question on prediction. Can violence be predicted ahead of time to the point it can be stopped before happening? When we see “PINs” or “ritual signs of violence” or \u201cbody language\/intent\u201d….it’s at our doorstep and about to happen. It’s too late for mitigation, prevention, or prediction. It’s here and we need to deal with it…OR we simply don’t see or acknowledge these things and bad things happen. But can it be predicted prior and stopped? If there\u2019s a lead-up or high-stakes predictions (long-term planning, manifest\u00f3s, social media info, loved-one concern from signs, diaries, prior like-behavior), I\u2019d say a far greater chance. If not, I\u2019d say very difficult. Risk-analysis, threat-assessment, safety-precautions to mitigate threat\u2026.absolutely. To predict outright? I\u2019d say pretty damn difficult. Trends, environments, statistics, signs all help to mitigate and risk-downsize\u2026.but it\u2019s super-, super-difficult to predict individual human behavior what with urges, irrational behavior, impulse, momentary need, states, moods, etc. Maybe with the new brain\/neuro technology that’s being developed but the risk of this (privacy-loss\/mind-invasiveness\/corporation-government misuse) is pretty damn horrifying. Lowering the odds is definitely achievable, however, to be certain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Resultado<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Regarding definitions, I\u2019d say (for me, from my perspective) \u201cintuition\u201d would be something on the short-end of time\u2026.something momentary, in-the-moment, situational, soon-to-happen..or not. \u201cPrediction\u201d longer-term, with a lead-up. Can we \u201cpredict\u201d what will happen on the stock-market? How someone will handle traumatic bad news? What the future will hold? I\u2019ll leave a few of very good, easy-to-read, and very up-to-date articles on intuition below for curiosity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Daniel Kahneman on Expert Intuition<\/a><\/blockquote>